1AN: This story is old. Nearly a decade old. I started writing it when I was involved with an Elder Scrolls site purely to play on the idea of one tiny random event making a massive difference. I'm reasonably happy with what I wrote but have zero interest in carrying it forward. Anybody who wants to take it from here: feel free. And it's written in American English, so "rumor" and "favorite" et al are intentional.
It is a universal law that the smallest things can have almost unimaginable consequences. On this Frost Fire night in the Imperial City, a coin landed showing the head of the emperor, just as Gerich Burtilius had predicted it would. Later, he headed for his favorite haunt the Tiber Septim Hotel, where flush with his winnings he bought one more bottle of Tamika's finest from Augusta Calidia than he usually did. The strong wine soon had its effect and walking home after dark, his drunken singing attracted the attention of two imperial guards, who walked so close to Faric Merian that he lost count of doors, and accidentally broke in to the wrong house.
The consequences hadn't become unimaginable yet, but it was only a matter of time.